Investors in PepsiCo Inc (Symbol: PEP) saw new options begin trading today, for March 2023 expiry. One of the main entries that go into the price an option buyer is ready-to-pay is time value, so with 80 days to expiration, new trade contracts represent a potential opportunity for put or call writers to earn a higher premium than they would be available for contracts with shorter maturities. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula scoured the PEP options channel for March 2023 new contracts and identified a put contract and a call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the strike price of $180.00 has a current bid of $4.75. If an investor were to sell to open this put contract, they agree to buy the stock at $180.00, but will also collect the premium, placing the base cost of the stock at $175.25 (before brokerage commissions ). For an investor already interested in buying shares of PEP, this could represent an attractive alternative to paying $183.34/share today.
Since the $180.00 strike represents about a 2% discount to the current stock price (in other words, it’s out of the money by that percentage), it’s also possible that the sales contract expires worthless. Current analytical data (including Greeks and implied Greeks) suggests that the current chance of this happening is 99%. Stock Options Channel will track these odds over time to see how they change, by posting a table of these numbers on our website under the contract detail page for that contract. If the contract expires worthless, the premium would represent a return of 2.64% on the cash commitment, or 12.05% annualized – at Stock Options Channel, we call this the Yield increase.
Below is a chart showing PepsiCo Inc’s last twelve month trading history, and highlighting in green where the $180.00 strike falls in relation to that history:
On the call side of the options chain, the call contract at the strike price of $190.00 has a current bid of $3.70. If an investor were to buy PEP shares at the current price level of $183.34/share and then sell to open this call contract as a “covered call”, they are committing to selling the stock at 190 $.00. Assuming that the call seller will also collect the premium, this would result in a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 5.65% if the stock is called at the March 2023 expiry (before brokerage commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if PEP shares really do soar, which is why it’s important to look at PepsiCo Inc’s past 12-month trading history, as well as study the fundamentals of the business. Below is a chart showing PEP’s trading history over the last twelve months, with the $190.00 strike highlighted in red:
Considering that the strike price of $190.00 represents a premium of approximately 4% to the current stock price (in other words, it is out of the price by that percentage), it It is also possible for the covered call contract to expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both his shares and the premium collected. Current analytical data (including Greeks and implied Greeks) suggests that the current chance of this happening is 99%. On our website, under the contract detail page for that contract, the Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a table of those numbers (the option contract’s trading history will be also plotted). If the covered call expires worthless, the premium would represent a 2.02% increase in incremental return to the investor, or 9.21% annualized, what we call the Yield increase.
Meanwhile, we calculate that the actual volatility for the last twelve months (considering the closing values for the last 252 trading days as well as the current price of $183.34) is 19%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth considering, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
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